Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction 12th Session

Miami, USA, 12-14 January 2009

Report of the 12th Session of WGSIP

Presentations
Reports and other relevant documents
List of participants
Venue
Logistical Information

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Presentations

Download here the meeting pro-forma that outlines the meeting rationale, objectives, and anticipated outcomes.
Download the agenda here.

Welcome and review of Agenda
-Opening Remarks - Martin Visbeck

Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP)
-Current commitment for participation in CHFP Experiment - Ben Kirtman
-CHFP Data Server at CIMA - Carolina Vera
-CHFP Data Server at APCC - Woo-Jin Lee (pdf document)

GEWEX and land surface issues
-GLACE2 - The second phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment - Randy Koster
-The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought - Randy Koster

SPARC and Stratospheric impacts
-The Stratosphere and Seasonal to Decadal Prediction - Adam Scaife, Sarah Ineson, Jeff Knight and Andrew Marshall

Cryosphere issues
-Cryosphere Issues - Jens Christensen

Links to and encouragement of Applications
-Status report on use of and need for research data in seasonal applications - Andy Morse, Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones

Decadal prediction
-What are the Prospects for Decadal Prediction? - George Boer
-A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design - Lead authors: Karl E. Taylor Ronald J. Stouffer and Gerald A. Meehl, presented by Tim Stockdale (pdf document)

Links to C20C project
-CLIVAR Climate of the 20th Century Project - Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter and David Fereday

Ocean observing system
-Determining the impact of TAO on seasnoal prediction skill - Tim Stockdale
-The Ocean Observing System and seasonal prediction skill - Harry Hendon

Standard hindcast verification
-Comparison of Scores in Model Comparison (MSSS,COR,RMSE and ROC) - Tomoaki Ose and Yukiko Naruse
-Preliminary report on verification scores for malaria and the climate drivers DEMETER to ENSEMBLES - Andy Morse, Cyril Caminade and Anne Jones
-Multi-model standard hindcast verification - Harry Hendon

Other possible future projects, and linkages with other CLIVAR panels
-MJO Prediction/Diagnostics Activity within CLIVAR, esp AAMP - Harry Hendon
-Multi-model operational seasonal forecasts for SADC - Willem A. Landman, Asmerom Beraki, Cobus Olivier and Francois Engelbrecht
-Linkages between WGSIP and US CLIVAR - David Legler

Local Presentations

Review of activities around the world

-Seasonal prediction at CPTEC - Paulo Nobre
-Recent developments in seasonal forecasting at the French NMS - Michel Déqué
-Predicting global mean annual temperature in ECMWF System 3 - Tim Stockdale
-Seasonal prediction at CCCma - George Boer
-MME performance - Woo-Jin Lee (pdf document)
-IRI seasonal forecast update - Dave DeWitt
-POAMA summary - Harry Hendon
-Next NCEP Climate Forecast System - Hua-Lu Pan
-Research activities in Japan on seasonal forecasts - Tomoaki Ose
-SAWS update - Willem Landman
-Predictability of monthly mean: Impact of intialization and lead time - Arun Kumar
-GloSea4 update - Adam Scaife
-La Plata Basin research community update - Carolina Vera

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Reports and other relevant documents

Pre-meeting Reports

O. Alves and H. Hendon	Next Generation Australian Seasonal Prediction System
M. Déqué	EUROSIP - Seasonal forecast of daily temperature distribution
W.-J. Lee	Tentative Plan for Asia Pacific Data Exchange Portal
W.-J. Lee	Performance of MME Seasonal Prediction at APCC

Other relevant documents

-CLIVAR contributions to implementation of the WCRP Strategic Framework (Draft 7 January 2009)
-A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design - Lead authors: Karl E. Taylor Ronald J. Stouffer and Gerald A. Meehl
-Recommendation on the Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group - Prepared by US CLIVAR MJO Working Group & Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP)
-Hindcast Experiment for Intraseasonal Prediction Draft Plan

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Participants

Panel Members

Tim Stockdale (Co-Chair), Ben Kirtman (Co-Chair), Willem Landman, Pablo Nobre, Michel Déqué, George Boer, Andy Morse, Dave DeWitt, Tomoaki Ose, Hua-Lu Pan, Randy Koster, Adam Scaife, Oscar Alves (not attending)

CLIVAR ICPO: Anna Pirani

Invitees

Harry Hendon, Carolina Vera, Arun Kumar, Woo-Jin Lee, Jens Christensen, David Legler, Martin Visbeck

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Venue

The WGSIP meeting is being hosted by Ben Kirtman (cell phone: 301-6517589) at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS).

The meeting will be held in the SLAB seminar room, near the Dean's office.

RSMAS on a map of Miami

Interactive map of RSMAS

View the current conditions via the webcam that overlooks the RSMAS dock and Bear Cut from the roof of the Dougherty Marine Science Center.

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Logistics

Hotel

The Mutiny Hotel

We have a block booking at a special room rate of $209/night for a single bedroon suites at the Mutiny Hotel, Coconut Grove, Miami. The booking is available for three days pre and post the meeting dates, catering for those who plan to arrive earlier or leave later.

To make a reservation, please contact Claudia Cano, Reservations Manager at 305-441-2100 extension 2005 or by email at ccano@mutinyhotel.com, with cc to Richard Sales at rsalas@mutinyhotel.com. 'WGSIP' is the reference name for the booking.

We are planning to organize car pools and taxis, if necessary, to go between the hotel and RSMAS. Please meet at 8:30 in the Mutiny Hotel Lobby at 8:30.

Social Event

Tuesday 13th January - dinner at Sammy-C's, 3540 Main Highway. More details on the reservation and menu will be given at the meeting.

Miami Activities

Great Tast of the Grove Festival
Peacock Park - Saturday-Sunday, 10-11 January, 11am to 7pm.
The Coconut Grove Chamber of Commerce signature winter event, now in its 18th year, will take place in Peacock Park (2820 McFarlane Road). Admission is free. Over 30 restaurants ranging from fine dining cuisine to casual favorites will be featured, each showcasing their culinary talents with an a-la-carte tasting menu ranging from $1.00 to $8.00 per dish. The event includes musical entertainment and family fun.

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last updated Mon, Apr 6, 2009 by Anna Pirani