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WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) seeks to document and provide understanding of the climate models' response to human activities. These activities influence the model (and the real climate) response through changes in the model's radiative forcing through changes in greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, etc), aerosols (black and organic carbon, sulphates, dust, etc.) and land use. In order to understand the past observed climate changes, climate models are also forced with changes in the radiative forcing not impacted by human activities such as changes in the amount of sunshine reaching the earth and volcanic eruptions. CMIP attempts to document and understand the climate models' response to these forcings through a series of well designed numerical experiments.

CMIP began in 1995 under the auspices of the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM). The first set of common experiments involved comparing the model response to a idealized forcing, a constant rate of increase which was accomplished using a CO2 increase of 1% per year compounded. Since that time a number of CMIP experiments have been developed. The experiments continue to include integrations using idealized forcings to facilitate understanding. They now also include integrations forced with estimates of the changes in the historical radiative forcings as well as estimates of the future changes.

CMIP3, just recently completed, is a great success. It was used in support of the IPCC AR4 Assessment. Hundreds of peer reviewed scientific papers have been written using the CMIP3 datasets. The next major CMIP effort, CMIP5 has been designed and is expected to span the next 5 years or so. For more information, see the CMIP5 pages on the PCMDI CMIP website.

In addition to the major CMIP experiments, CMIP has also included a series of smaller model intercomparisons efforts design to understand specific aspects of the model response. These have been called the Coordinated CMIP Experiments. To date, two coordinated experiments have been run. One investigated the Atlantic Merdional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (or thermohaline circulation - THC) response to changes in the surface fluxes of heat and water. The second Coordinated Experiment documented the model response to external surface water flux in high latitudes of the North Atlantic, the so-called water hosing experiments. A number of papers have been written using these datasets.

From the beginning of CMIP, it was a focus of the effort to make the model intercomparison data available to other scientists outside of the modeling groups who ran the models. To facilitate this effort required developing many outside collaborations to solve various problems both on the hardware side (how does one store/search/find what you want in so large datasets?) to the software side (how do I get the ocean data for the area off the west coast of the US?). The most important of these outside collaborations has been with The US Dept of Energy (DOE) Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). As noted above the PCMDI web site contains much more detailed information of the various CMIP efforts and datasets (PCMDI CMIP website).

The CMIP activities are overseen by the CMIP Panel which is a standing subcommittee of the WGCM. It is the responsibility of the CMIP Panel to follow the guidance of the WGCM committee. The CMIP Panel oversees the design of the various CMIP experiments, oversees the various CMIP datasets and to helps resolve problems that arise either during the model integrations/data generation phase or in the use of the datasets. The WGCM committee has the ultimate responsibility to oversee the whole CMIP process.

 

CMIP Phase 5 (CMIP5)

The CMIP5 experimental protocol has been confrimed by the 12th Session of the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling and is presented in the following document:

Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer and G. A. Meehl, 2009: A Summary of the CMIP5 Experiment Design, http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/

The PCMDI CMIP5 website gives details on the experimental protocol and how to submit and access data.

References

A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs.
G. A. Meehl and K. Hibbard (2007), Report from the Aspen Global Change Institute 2006 Session - Earth System Models: The Next Generation, July 30 - August 5, 2006 and joint WGCM/AIMES Steering Committee Meeting 27 September 2006. WCRP Informal Report No 3/2007; ICPO Publication No. 112; IGBP Report No. 57.

A strategy for climate change stabilisation experiments
Hibbard, K. A. , G. H. Meehl, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein (2007), EOS, 88, 217-221.

Near-term decadal experimentation

Coordinated experimentation to study multi-decadal prediction and near-term climate change
WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR/WCRP sub-group (Tim Stockdale, Gabi Hegerl , Jerry Meehl, James Murphy, Ron Stouffer, Marco Giorgetta, Masihide Kimoto, Tim Palmer, Wilco Hazeleger, Detlef Stammer, Ben Kirtman and George Boer) (2008).

Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful?
Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, and T. Stockdale (2009), Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.

CMIP5 Model Output

Sampling Physical Ocean Fields in WCRP CMIP5 Simulations
Griffies, S. M., A. J. Adcroft, H. Aiki, V. Balaji, M. Bentson, F. Bryan, G. Danabasoglu, S. Denvil, H. Drange, M. England, J. Gregory, R. W. Hallberg, S. Legg, T. Martin, T. McDougall, A.Pirani, G. Schmidt, D. Stevens, K. E. Taylor, and H. Tsujino (2009), ICPO Publication Series 137, WCRP Informal Report No. 3/2009.

IPCC Standard Output from Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCMs
WGCM Climate Simulation Panel with the assistance of PCMDI, 34pp., 2007.

The Earth System Grid: Enabling Access to Multimodel Climate Simulation Data
D. N. Williams, R. Ananthakrishnan, D. E. Bernholdt, S. Bharathi, D. Brown, M. Chen, A. L. Chervenak, L. Cinquini, R. Drach, I. T. Foster, P. Fox, D. Fraser, J. Garcia, S. Hankin, P. Jones, D. E. Middleton, J. Schwidder, R. Schweitzer, R. Schuler, A. Shoshani, F. Siebenlist, A. Sim, W. G. Strand, M. Su, and N. Wilhelmi (2009). Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2459.1.

Emissions scenarios and future climate forcings

Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies
Moss R., Babiker, M., Brinkman, S., Calvo, E., Carter, T., Edmonds, J., Elgizouli, I., Emori, S., Erda, L., Hibbard, K., Jones, R., Kainuma, M., Kelleher, J., Lamarque, J.F., Manning, M., Matthews, B., Meehl, G., Meyer, L., Mitchell, J., Nakicenovic, N., O’Neill, B., Pichs, T., Riahi, K., Rose, S., Runci, P., Stouffer, R., van Vuuren, D., Weyant, J., Wilbanks, T., van Ypersele, J.P., and M. Zurek (2008). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 132 pp.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R., H., J. A. Edmonds, K. A. Hibbard, M. R. Manning, S. K. Rose, D. P. van Vuuren, T. R. Carter, S. Emori, M. Kainuma, T. Kram, G. A. Meehl, J. F. B. Mitchell, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. J. Smith, R. J. Stouffer, A. M. Thomson, J. P. Weyant and T. J. Wilbanks (2010). Nature, 463, 747-756, doi:10.1038/nature08823.

Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nakicenovic, N., J. Alcamo, G. Davis, B. de Vries, J. Fenhann, S. Gaffin, K. Gregory, A. Grübler, T. Yong Jung, T. Kram, E. Lebre La Rovere, L. Michaelis, S. Mori, T. Morita, W. Pepper, H. Pitcher, L. Price, K. Riahi, A. Roehrl, H.-H. Rogner, A. Sankovski, M. Schlesinger, P. Shukla, S. Smith, R. Swart, S. van Rooijen, N. Victor, Z. Dadi, (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 599 pp. Available online at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm.

Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st Century
Eyring, V., D. W. Waugh, G. E. Bodeker, E. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. R. Beagley, B. Boville, P. Braesicke, C. Bru.hl, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S. M. Frith, R. R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, M. Giorgetta, D. E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, E. Manzini, D. R. Marsh, S. Matthes, T. Nagashima, P. A. Newman, J. E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D. A. Plummer, E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J. F. Scinocca, K. Semeniuk, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, B. Steil, R. Stolarski, W. Tian, and M. Yoshiki, (2007) J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332.

Climate Feedbacks

How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?
Bony S, R Colman, V M Kattsov, R P Allan, C S Bretherton, J-L Dufresne, A Hall, S Hallegatte, M M Holland, W Ingram, D A Randall, B J Soden, G Tselioudis and M J Webb, (2006): J. Climate,19 (15), 3445-3482

CFMIP-GCSS plans for advancing assessments of cloud-climate feedbacks.
Bony S, M Webb, B Stevens, C Bretherton, S Klein and G Tselioudis (2008): GEWEX News, 18, No. 4, pp 10-12.

An assessment of the primary sources of spread of global warming estimates from coupled atmosphere-ocean models
Dufresne J.-L.,and S. Bony (2008). J. Climate, 21, 5135-5144, DOI 10.1175/2008JCLI2239.1.

Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison
Friedlingstein, P., P. Cox, R. Betts, L. Bopp, W. vonBloh, V. Brovkin, P. Cadule, S. Doney, M.Eby, Kato, M. Kawamiya, W. Knorr, K. Lindsay, H.D. Mathews, T. Raddatz, P. Rayner, C. Reick, E. Roeckner, K.G. Schnitzler, R. Schnur, K. Strassmann, A.J. Weaver, C. Yoshikawa, and N. Zeng, (2006), J. Climate, 19, 3337-3353, doi:10.1175/JCLI3800.1.

Efficacy of climate forcings
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, N. Bell, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, M. Kelley, N. Kiang, D. Koch, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, S. Menon, R. Miller, P. Minnis, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, B. Wielicki, T. Wong, M. Yao, and S. Zhang, (2005), J. Geophys. Res. 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.

A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity
Gregory, J. M., W. J. Ingram, M. A. Palmer, G. S. Jones, P. A. Stott, R. B. Thorpe, J. A. Lowe, T. C. Johns, and K. D. Williams, (2004), Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, doi:10.1029/2003GL018747.

Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component in CO2 forcing
Gregory, J.M., and M. J. Webb, (2008), J. of Climate, 21, 58-71, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1834.1.

 

CMIP Phase 3 (CMIP3)

CMIP3 output from coupled ocean-atmosphere model simulations of 20th - 22nd century climate is archived by the PCMDI in support of research relied on by the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

For complete details visit the dedicated website on CMIP3 hosted by PCMDI.

CMIP3 Data Archive
The database is now open access. Users must register and agree to the terms of use found here.

References

For an extensive list of CMIP3 publications please refer to the PCMDI CMIP3 Subproject Publications webpage.

Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific Developments Needed to Understand, Predict, and Respond to Climate Change
Doherty, S. J., S. Bojinski, A. Henderson-Sellers, K. Noone, D. Goodrich, N. L. Bindoff, J. A. Church, K. A. Hibbard, T. R. Karl, L. Kajfez-Bogataj, A. H. Lynch, D. E. Parker, I. C. Prentice, V. Ramaswamy, R. W. Saunders, M. Stafford Smith, K. Steffen, T. F. Stocker, P. W. Thorne, K. E. Trenberth, M. M. Verstraete, and F. W. Zwiers, (2009). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 497–513.

The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research.
Meehl, G.A., C. Covey, T. Delworth, M. Latif, B. McAvaney, J.F.B. Mitchell, R.J. Stouffer, and K.E. Taylor. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1383-1394, 2007.

Global Climate Projections
Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao (2007): Global Climate Projections. Chapter 10 in: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Evaluation of climate models
Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumi and K.E. Taylor 2007). Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
Hawkins E. and R. Sutton (2009). Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1.

 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The IPCC was established to provide the decision-makers and others interested in climate change with an objective source of information about climate change through its assessment of the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

Access and download the "Climate Change 2007", the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (AR4) on the state of knowledge, as well as IPCC Special Reports; Methodology Reports; Technical Papers; and Supporting Material, often in response to requests from the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or from other environmental Conventions.

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last updated Mon, Mar 15, 2010 by Anna Pirani